Waffles' Week 17 Picks Against The Spread

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It's hard to believe, but the final week of the 2019 NFL regular season has arrived. The playoffs are mostly set but some teams could jockey around seeding depending on the results on Sunday. Before making picks for this week, you need to make sure you know what teams are resting starters, and who still has something left to play for this week.

Tennessee -3.5 over HOUSTON

The Titans have everything to play for, Houston can jump the Chiefs in playoff seeding with a win and a KC loss. It appears the Texans will be starting most of their key players in this one but, I don’t think they’ll last through the game. Plus, Tennessee is out for revenge after the loss a couple weeks ago to their division rival. The Pick: Tennessee 28 Houston 21

Cleveland -2.5 over CINCINNATI

Both these teams are eliminated, so it’s for bragging rights only. Freddie Kitchens may be coaching for his job here. The Pick: Cleveland 21 Cincinnati 21

MINNESOTA -1 over Chicago

Most likely no Dalvin Cook for the Vikings, as they are locked in as the 6th seed in the NFC Playoffs. I think Minnesota needs a win here to get some good momentum going into January. The Pick: Minnesota 24 Chicago 17

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Indianapolis

Another game with zero playoff implications, maybe Gardner Minshew playing for a job next season though? Give me the Jags to cover. The Pick: Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 24

Atlanta (PK) over TAMPA BAY

I like the Falcons to get revenge for getting smoked by Jameis & Co a few weeks back. Plus, Winston’s receivers are all banged up. The Pick: Atlanta 35 Tampa Bay 24

Washington +11 over DALLAS

Dallas has been terrible, but they should win this one without many problems. The Skins have been a bit of a thorn in the side as of late though, so I like them to cover. The Pick: Dallas 30 Washington 20

New Orleans -13 over CAROLINA

The Saints are still playing for a first round bye, which if they win, they’ll get. (Homefield advantage is still in the picture too) Drew Brees will be playing and Michael Thomas will be looking to extend his single season reception record he secured last week. If you watched the Panthers last week, how can you have any confidence in Will Grier to keep this one within two touchdowns? The Pick: New Orleans 35 Carolina 10

Philadelphia -4.5 over NY GIANTS

The Giants NEED to lose, they’ve fallen out of the top three picks in the NFL draft. For Philly, a win clinches the NFC East title, they’ll be all systems go in this one. The Pick: Philadelphia 27 NY Giants 17

Pittsburgh -2 over BALTIMORE

The Ravens are resting all their key players, Pittsburgh needs to win and get some help to clinch a playoff spot. The Pick: Pittsburgh 21 Baltimore 17

NY Jets +1.5 over BUFFALO

It appears that Josh Allen and other offensive starters will be sitting this one out. That means Matt Barkley will be the quarterback. No way am I taking him, even against the Jets. The Pick: NY Jets 28 Buffalo 14

Miami +15.5 over NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots are 6-1 ATS when they’re favored by 9.5 over more this season. They know that a win gets them a much needed week off in the form of a first round bye. I expect the Pats to jump on Miami early, but then Brady, Edelman and others sit down in the second half, allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to backdoor cover this one for the Dolphins. The Pick: New England 27 Miami 14

DETROIT +12.5 over Green Bay

I expect this one to play out similar to the Pats/Dolphins tilt. Green Bay gets a big lead early, then the starters come out in the third quarter. I’m a little skeptical about David Blough leading a backdoor cover charge however, but I’m taking the points here. The Pick: Green Bay 31 Detroit 21

KANSAS CITY -8.5 over LA Chargers 

Done with Philip Rivers. The Pick: Kansas City 35 LA Chargers 24

LA RAMS -7.5 over Arizona

Making this pick under the assumption Kyler Murray sits out for the Cardinals after suffering a pulled hamstring last week. The Pick: LA Rams 34 Arizona 21

Oakland +3.5 over DENVER

There’s still a chance for the Raiders to make the playoffs, Jon Gruden will have his team ready to go. The Pick: Oakland 24 Denver 20

SEATTLE +3 over San Francisco

The best game of the day will happen on Sunday night. The winner gets the NFC West title, a possible bye (depending on what happens earlier in the day) and if it's the 49ers who come out on top, homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. These two put on a spectacular Monday night game a few weeks ago, and I think it will be similar in this one. I like Russell Wilson to lead the Seahawks to a come from behind victory late in the 4th quarter. The Pick: Seattle 28 San Francisco 24

Last Week

ATS: 7-8-1

SU: 10-6

Season Total

ATS: 121-112-7 

SU: 147-92-1


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