Social Security recipients could see a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027, according to new forecasts released this week. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) predicts that next year’s COLA will be 3.8 percent—one percentage point higher than the 2.8 percent adjustment for 2026—based on recent inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released Tuesday.

If the 3.8 percent increase is finalized, average monthly benefits would rise by about $74, from $1,937.53 to $2,011.15, TSCL estimates. The annual COLA is determined by the Social Security Administration using CPI data from July, August, and September, with the official announcement expected in October.

The latest CPI figure shows prices up 3.5 percent from a year ago in June—well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target. Rising costs for food, housing, and transportation are putting pressure on seniors, with TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton saying, "We're seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can't afford basic living standards."

TSCL notes that only 10 percent of seniors are satisfied with their monthly benefits, as many believe COLAs lag behind real inflation costs. The group has urged Congress to change how COLA is calculated, suggesting the use of the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which better reflects seniors’ spending patterns. However, a bill to make this change—the Social Security 2100 Act—faces an uncertain future in Congress.

Financial challenges remain for the Social Security program overall. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that a 3.8 percent COLA could worsen the system’s fiscal shortfall by $300 billion over the next decade and move up the projected insolvency of the main trust fund by three months to late 2032. Once the fund is depleted, federal law would require automatic benefit cuts to match existing payroll tax revenue, which could mean a 25 percent reduction in benefits for everyone receiving Social Security.

While the official 2027 COLA announcement is months away, ongoing inflation and debates over how adjustments are calculated will continue to affect millions of Americans who rely on these benefits. For now, the projected increase offers some hope, but long-term solutions for Social Security’s funding remain uncertain.

The Financial Exchange with Barry Armstrong