Waffles Week 12 Picks Against The Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns

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Much needed bounce back in Week 11, back over .500 on the season so we have to keep it rolling, can't look back from here. Here's my picks for Week 12.

Spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider as of 11/21

Home team in CAPS

Indianapolis +3.5 over HOUSTON

This is a very intriguing match-up on Thursday Night Football this week, the Colts and Texans are tied at 6-4 atop the AFC South division and if Indy takes this one, they’ll have swept the two match-ups against Houston this year. I like the Colts tonight for a few odd reasons, one Thursday night underdogs are 8-3 this season ATS, Indy is 6-1 in their last 7 trips to Houston, and the one loss was in OT, also I think this one will be a field goal game regardless, take the Colts, and pray Adam Vinatieri doesn’t miss any kicks. The Pick: Indianapolis 27 Houston 24

CLEVELAND -10.5 over Miami

The first game for the Browns since the Myles Garrett helmet incident, and it feels like that game was a month ago not last Thursday. I think we’re finally going to see Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham connect for multiple touchdowns which will be a very pleasant sight for Browns fans and Beckham fantasy owners everywhere. The Dolphins are fully back to their losing ways after that two game winning streak, which probably ruined their chances for the Number 1 pick in the draft. The Pick: Cleveland 31 Miami 13

BUFFALO -4 over Denver

The Broncos stink, and the Bills are reaping the benefits of beating up on the cupcakes on their schedule (Miami x2, Washington, Cincinnati). The Bills will take care of business at home, before shifting their attention to their Thanksgiving showdown in Dallas. The Pick: Buffalo 23 Denver 14

Pittsburgh -6.5 over CINCINNATI

Is this the week the Bengals finally get in the win column? I don’t think so, how can you trust Ryan Finley? You just can’t. Mike Tomlin is pumping his tires by saying that Finley’s mobility will be a problem for the Steelers. Even if it is, it’s not enough of a problem to actually win this game, or even cover in my opinion. Steelers cover no problem. The Pick: Pittsburgh 28 Cincinnati 17

NY Giants +6 over CHICAGO

What an awful spread, I couldn’t trust either one of these teams by more than a field goal no matter who they’re playing. The Bears are 2-5 ATS when favored, and those two wins are against the Redskins, and the Jeff Driskel-lead Lions. The Giants are no sure thing to cover, but I just flat out refuse to take Mitchell Trubisky. The Pick: Chicago 22 NY Giants 17

NY JETS +3 over Oakland

We’re going to find out if the Raiders are legit this week, in a game against a team they should be able to beat easily. The problem is, Oakland has not been good in the 1pm east coast time slot (1-2, both losses by 18 points), and I can see that trend continuing against the Jets, who are going to let Sam D’Arnold go out there and sling it against this poor pass defense. The problem there is, D’Arnold is going to turn it over a few times, and probably at a crucial point of the game, I like the Jets to cover, but Oakland to sneak out of Metlife with a win. The Pick: Oakland 28 NY Jets 27

NEW ORLEANS -9.5 over Carolina

Both of these teams have been shocked by the Atlanta Falcons in the past two weeks, the Saints had a nice bounce back against the dreadful Tampa Bay Buccaneers, unfortunately for the Panthers, their next matchup is a trip to the SuperDome to take on the Saints, and with Kyle Allen all of a sudden turning into a turnover machine, New Orleans defense is going to have a field day. I like the Saints a lot in this one, and so do the majority of bettors. The line has moved 2.5 points in just two days. The Pick: New Orleans 35 Carolina 21

ATLANTA -4.5 over Tampa Bay

The Falcons have been impressive the past two weeks, and it seems they’re righting the ship in the second half of what’s been an underwhelming 2019 season. They forced four interceptions from Kyle Allen last week, can Jameis Winston top that number? He might. The Pick: Atlanta 31 Tampa Bay 24

Detroit -3.5 over WASHINGTON

This is definitely the worst game on a worse than stellar slate in Week 12, Jeff Driskel and the Lions against Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins. The Redskins defense is so bad, even Driskel should be able to put up good numbers against them, I like the Lions, who aren’t quite dead yet. The Pick: Detroit 28 Washington 17

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Jacksonville

I thought Nick Foles would have a statement game in his return from injury last week in Indianapolis, and he was just ok in the Jaguars loss to the Colts. Jacksonville is disfunctional and that will be the case against the Titans, who since handing the reins over to Ryan Tannehill at QB, are 3-1! Tannehill has played well, completing 71% of his passes to go along with 8 passing touchdowns and a rushing one also. I like the Titans at home, and they’ll be firmly in the hunt for the AFC South title after this one. The Pick: Tennessee 27 Jacksonville 21

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Dallas

This is going to be an interesting game in Foxboro on Sunday, Isaiah Wynn is set to return, which means hopefully we don’t ever have to see Marshall Newhouse play a meaningful snap again this season. The bad news for the Pats is, Mohamed Sanu and Philip Dorsett may miss this one, leaving Tom Brady’s weapons coupard even barren than it already is. (Thanks Gronk, enjoy your South Beach party) For Dallas to win this one, they’re going to have to run the ball, and get a big day from Zeke Elliott. Elliott is going to get his yards for sure, but the coaching mismatch in this one will prove to be the difference, Bill Belichick will have his team ready, while Jason Garrett will probably make a late game decision to cost the Cowboys the game. The Pick: New England 26 Dallas 14

Seattle +1.5 over PHILADELPHIA 

The Eagles need to bounce back after last week’s loss against the Pats, unfortunately for them, the Seahawks are not the team to do it against. Seattle is coming in off the bye and I think Russell Wilson is going to have a field day against the Philly defense. I’m most interested in seeing how Josh Gordon looks with another few weeks under his belt in the Seahawks system. The Pick: Seattle 31 Philadelphia 27

Green Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO

Aaron Rodgers, coming off a bye, returning home to Northern California and he’s getting points? Sign me up. The 49ers, struggled against Arizona at home last week, having to pull out a late comeback win, and their schedule is about to get ridiculously more difficult than what they’ve been facing so far this season. I love Green Bay in this prime time spot. The Pick: Green Bay 28 San Francisco 24.

Baltimore -3 over LA RAMS

The Lamar Jackson train rolls into Hollywood on Monday Night Football this week, and I think he’s going to run all over this Rams defense. The Rams offense has been struggling as of late and I don’t see that changing this week against Baltimore. When is someone going to figure out how to stop this Ravens rushing attack? It won’t be this week, that’s for sure. The Pick: Baltimore 35 LA Rams 20

Byes: Kansas City, LA Chargers, Minnesota, Arizona 

Last Week

ATS:9-5

SU: 10-4

Season Total

ATS:82-77-3

SU: 102-59-1

VB in the Middle

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