Waffles' Week 13 NFL Picks Against The Spread

Dallas Cowboys v New England Patriots

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Twelve weeks are in the books, and as Bill Belichick likes to say, the real football season begins after Thanksgiving. Every team has had their bye week and are now ready for the Stretch run. With the full slates back in effect each week, maybe you can make up a few games if you're trailing the leader in your year long pools. Happy Thanksgiving, and lets get to it.

All spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider as of 11/26

Home Team in CAPS

THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES

Chicago -3 over DETROIT

If there’s one game to schedule your Thanksgiving Dinner during, it’s this one. These teams met a few weeks back in what turned out to be an ugly game and I was skeptical if Mitchell Trubisky could beat the Lions even if Matthew Stafford was out. He did, and with Stafford still out I like the Bears to have a repeat performance covering the spread in Detroit. The win will put Chicago at 6-6, meaning they’re still alive in the playoff hunt (Even though we all know they aren’t). The Pick: Chicago 21 Detroit 17

Buffalo +7 over DALLAS

I’m excited for this one, I think this is a great test and measuring for both teams as we get ready for the stretch run of the regular season. For the Bills, are they for real? They’re 8-3 this season, including 4-2 over the last six. The four wins: Miami x2, Denver, and Washington, all teams that will probably be picking in the top five of the 2020 draft. The two losses? Philadelphia and Cleveland, both of whom are still in the playoff hunt. For Dallas, can they rebound after the loss to the Patriots? I think they can, but I don’t trust Jason Garrett enough to think they’ll beat this Buffalo team by a touchdown. The Pick: Dallas 27 Buffalo 24

New Orleans -7 over ATLANTA

This will be a revenge game for Drew Brees & company, the Falcons shocked everyone earlier this season when they went into the Superdome and beat down the Saints with ease. After stringing together a few wins, and giving off the appearance that they may have figured things out, Atlanta came crashing down, getting destroyed by Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense. I like Brees to put up big numbers Thanksgiving Night. The Pick: New Orleans 31 Atlanta 21

REST OF WEEK 13 SLATE

Green Bay -6.5 over NY GIANTS

After getting embarrassed by the 49ers on Sunday Night, the Packers sure could use a lay up game to get back in the groove, and they’re getting just that with a trip to the Meadowlands to face the pathetic Giants. Rodgers will be much better this week, actually, its near impossible for him to play worse than he did against San Francisco. The Pick: Green Bay 34 NY Giants 17

CAROLINA +10 over Washington

After his hot start, Kyle Allen and the Panthers have cooled off big time, losing three straight and four out of the last five, including two 25+ point losses in that span, last week, they battled back late to nearly beat the Saints in New Orleans, and they would’ve if not for their kicker missing multiple kicks. Carolina needs an easy win, and the Redskins are the perfect victims for that. The Pick: Carolina 28 Washington 13

San Francisco +4.5 over BALTIMORE

We have a potential Super Bowl preview in Baltimore this season, with the 49ers flying across the country to take on the Ravens. Both squads are coming off impressive blow out wins this past week and I think we’re going to get a great battle on Sunday. This game feels like a late field goal is going to be the difference, as I think the Ravens are going to struggle to run against the Niners front seven. I’m giving Baltimore the benefit of the doubt at home to come away victorious, but I do think San Fran will cover the 4.5 point spread. The Pick: Baltimore 27 San Francisco 24

Tennessee +2 over INDIANAPOLIS

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but nobody wants to face Ryan Tannehill right now, he carved up Jacksonville this past week with both his arm, and his legs and I think he’ll have success against this banged up Colts team. Indy is getting healthier, but it may be too little too late after losing three out of the last four and more tough teams coming up on the schedule. The Colts playoff hopes are slipping away. The Pick: Tennessee 23 Indianapolis 17

Philadelphia -10 over MIAMI

After back-to-back home losses the Eagles sure could use a reset, and no better place to do that than Miami, where the birds will beat up on the Dolphins with ease. The Pick: Philadelphia 34 Miami 13

KANSAS CITY -10 over Oakland

The Chiefs are coming off the bye week, while the Raiders are licking their wounds after getting spanked by the Jets last week. As I mentioned this last week, Oakland is downright dreadful in the 1pm east coast time slot, and that’s exactly when this game is being played. Last time these two played, Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes in the 2nd quarter! It’s going to be a long day for the Silver and Black. The Pick: Kansas City 38 Oakland 21

JACKSONVILLE -1 over Tampa Bay

I have no idea with this one, but what I do know is, any time you think the Bucs have it figured it out, they play miserably the following week. The Jaguars have lost three in a row, and I think this is the perfect team to break that streak and allow Nick Foles to regain some confidence after returning from that collarbone injury a few weeks ago. The Pick: Jacksonville 27 Tampa Bay 21

NY Jets -3.5 over CINCINNATI 

Is this the week the Bengals finally get in the win column? I don’t think so. Sam D’Arnold and the Jets offense are clicking against the terrible defenses they’ve seen the past few weeks, and they’re getting another one here against Cincy. With Ryan Finley at QB, I just don’t see how the Bengals are going to win a game this season, maybe in Miami Week 16? The Pick: NY Jets 30 Cincinnati 17

LA Rams -4 over ARIZONA

What an embarrassing performance by the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 12. Six points at home in prime time? Pitiful. Luckily for them, they get to play the lowly Cardinals, who have lost four straight, although Arizona has hung in most of those games. I think Todd Gurley will play a huge part in this one, and the Rams will have no issues in the desert. The Pick: LA Rams 27 Arizona 20

LA Chargers -2.5 over DENVER

I hate taking Philip Rivers, but I just can’t bring myself to pick the Broncos. The Chargers will be aided in getting Derwin James back, the All-Pro Safety has been out all year with a nagging foot injury, but all signs point towards him being 100%. James, presence will be immediately felt, and the Chargers will win out at Mile High. The Pick: LA Chargers 28 Denver 13

PITTSBURGH +2.5 over Cleveland

These two teams just played two weeks ago, anything memorable happen in that one? No Myles Garrett or Maurkice Pouncey in this one, but that won’t stop this one from getting chippy, so I expect to see a lot of flags being thrown. The Steelers have played really well at home and I like them to win this one outright. The Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Cleveland 20

NEW ENGLAND -3 over Houston

Is this finally the year Bill O’Brien beats Bill Belichick? I don’t think so. Deshaun Watson is going to have to use his legs a lot in this one if the Texans are to pull of the upset. Stephon Gilmore is the best player in the league right now, and he’s going to take DeAndre Hopkins out of this one, forcing Watson to look for other options. I also don’t think Houston has the running game to give the Pats defense big problems either. Rookies N’Keal Harry and Jacobi Meyers are gaining trust from Tom Brady, and we should see Mohammad Sanu and Philip Dorsett back after missing last week’s game. I like the Pats in a close one. The Pick: New England 23 Houston 13

Seattle -3 over Minnesota

Nothing like a Monday night Shootout to end the Week 13 slate. Russell Wilson is going to shred this Vikings defense, and while Kirk Cousins will get his, it won’t be enough to keep up with the Seahawks in the end. The Pick: Seattle 28 Minnesota 24

Last Week

ATS: 8-6

SU: 9-5

Season Total

ATS: 90-83-3

SU: 111-64-1

VB in the Middle

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