Waffles' Week Five NFL Picks Against The Spread

March Madness Viewing Party At The Westgate Las Vegas

September was a rough month for the picks blog, but the calendar has turned to October and I'm ready to make an uphill climb back to .500 starting this week!

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Spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider

LA Rams +1.5 over SEATTLE

Underdogs are 4-0 on Thursday Night this season, factor in that the Rams have to respond to their disaster of a performance last week against the Bucs ( 55 freaking points to TAMPA BAY?!!!) I like LA to go up to Seattle and take care of business. The Pick: LA Rams 27 SEATTLE 23

Baltimore -3 over PITTSBURGH

I’m not buying that the Steelers problems are now fixed after crushing the Bengals on Monday Night. The Ravens got smoked by the Browns, and I’m sensing a trend with them: they’ll beat up on weaker teams, but they’ll fall short, sometimes by a large margin against the more talented teams on their schedule. Luckily for them, without Big Ben, the Steelers are closer to the former than the latter. The Pick: Baltimore 24 PITTSBURGH 17 

Oakland +6 over Chicago (London)

Khalil Mack faces off against his old team for the first time since Jon Gruden traded him before the 2018 season. I’m sure he’s going to get his chance to put Derek Carr in the dirt a few times. These London games are always weird, and I’m going to take the points here, even though I think the Bears win the game. The Pick: Chicago 24 Oakland 20

Arizona +4 over CINCINNATI 

Both of these teams stink, and are coming off double digit loses to divisional rivals. Even though they’re on the road, I think this is a great spot for Kyler Murray to get his first win in the NFL. I like the Cardinals in what may be a sneaky shootout in Ohio. The Pick: Arizona 31 CINCINNATI 28

CAROLINA -3 over Jacksonville

It’s the Quaterback battle we’ve all been waiting for, Kyle Allen vs. Gardner Minshew! Carolina’s offense has looked much better with Allen at the helm, and I think they’ll be able to move the ball one way or another at home against this Jacksonville defense. Minshew will keep the Jags in it, but I like Carolina at home. The Pick: CAROLINA 20 Jacksonville 14

NY GIANTS +5.5 over Minnesota

The legend of Daniel Jones continues, the Giants are 2-0 since replacing Eli Manning with their first round pick this offseason. The Vikings are starting to have internal issues leak out, with both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs dropping subtle hints that they’re not happy with Kirk Cousins’ performance so far this season (besides fans of other NFC North teams, who is?) I like the Giants getting points at home in this matchup. The Pick: Minnesota 26 NY GIANTS 24

New England -13 over WASHINGTON

Has Washington figured out who their quarterback is for this week? It won’t matter anyway, the Pats are going to crush them and hopefully get out of D.C. without any more injuries. The Pick: New England 37 WASHINGTON 6

PHILADELPHIA -13 over NY JETS

I like the Eagles here regardless of whether or not Sam D’Arnold returns from his battle with mono. The Eagles impressed me last week, going into Lambeau Field on a short week and holding on to beat the Packers. The Jets come in off the bye but the extra time to prepare won’t matter, Philly is the far superior team. The Pick: PHILADELPHIA 30 NY Jets 13

NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Tampa Bay

I’m so bitter at the Buccaneers for now knocking me out of my survivor pool in back to back years. Jameis Winston looked like a Pro Bowler against the Rams and it would not surprise me in the least if this week he looks like the guy that is about to be forced out of the league do to his inconsistent performance. The Saints defense will be ready. The Pick: NEW ORLEANS 28 Tampa Bay 17

HOUSTON -4.5 over Atlanta

After last week’s pitiful performance at home against Marcus Mariota and the Titans, I refuse to take the Falcons until further notice. The Pick: HOUSTON 31 Atlanta 21

Buffalo +1 over TENNESSEE

The Bills defense is legit, Josh Allen is not. Buffalo will narrowly escape Tennessee in what I think will be one of the closest games this weekend. The Pick: Buffalo 21 TENNESSEE 20

LA CHARGERS -6.5 over Denver

Denver has entered into the esteemed group of “worst team in the NFL not named the Miami Dolphins” along with the Washington Redskins and New York Jets. The Chargers overcame an early scare and comfortably beat the Dolphins in Miami. They return home for what should be another lay-up for Phillip Rivers & co. The Pick: LA CHARGERS 27 Denver 14

Green Bay +4 over DALLAS

It feels like every time these two historic franchises faceoff we get a great football game. I expect nothing less this time around too. Both these teams got a reality check last week as Green Bay’s defense came back down to earth, giving up 34 points to the Eagles in Week 4, and the Cowboys offense could only manufacture 10 points against the Saints. This game is going to come down to whether or not Dak Prescott can step up in crunch time. I’m not quite sure he can. I’ll take that bad man and the Pack. The Pick: Green Bay 31 DALLAS 27

Indianapolis +8.5 over KANSAS CITY

The Colts were embarrassed by the Raiders at home last week and they’ll be playing this week with a chip on their shoulder to prove that they belong in the discussion for the AFC Playoff Picture. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs back from what would have been an ugly loss to the Lions. Chiefs will win this one, but I think the Colts cover. The Pick: KANSAS CITY 31 Indianapolis 24

SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Cleveland

Finally it appears that we will have a competitive and exciting Monday Night game this week. San Francisco comes in off the bye and they’ll be ready in what I believe is Jimmy G’s first prime time game since being traded to the 49ers. Cleveland is flying high after dropping 40 on the Ravens last week, but I like the 49ers by a touchdown at home. The Pick: SAN FRANCISCO 30 Cleveland 23

Bye Week: Detroit, Miami

Last Week:

ATS: 5-10

SU: 7-8

Season Total:

ATS: 25-38

SU 36-26-1

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VB in the Middle

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