Over/Under Win Predictions for Each AFC Team in 2019

Labor Day has come and gone so that means one thing, FOOTBALL IS BACK! I’ll be giving you the over/under predictions for each team, continuing with AFC below. You can check out my NFC picks here.

All Lines Courtesy of PointsBet/The Action Network as of 8/31

AFC East

New England Patriots

2018 Record: 11-5 

2019 Win Total: 11

The Pick: OVER

The defending Super Bowl Champs appear to be even deeper on paper this year, throw in a favorable schedule which doesn’t have them traveling farther west than Houston (we all know what happens whenever those two play) and a defense that may be the best Foxboro’s seen in a decade, the Pats are and should be the favorites out of the AFC again this year. Wake me up when the real season starts, on Championship Sunday.

New York Jets

2018 Record: 4-12

2019 Win Total: 7.5

The Pick: UNDER

Gang Green added stud running back Le’veon Bell, Pro Bowl Linebacker CJ Mosley and replaced sideline doormat Todd Bowles with Adam Gase (whether or not this is an improvement remains to be seen), all before firing their GM in true Jets fashion! 2018 first round pick Sam D’Arnold showed flashes of being the guy last year and will only get better, but doubling their win total from a year ago? This is the Jets we’re talking about, I just don’t see it.

Buffalo Bills

2018 Record: 6-10

2019 Win Total: 7

The Pick: OVER

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! How do you follow up your first playoff appearance since January 2000? By going 6-10 the following season of course! The bills invested in the offensive line in order to protect 2018 first round pick Josh Allen (who I think will end up being a bust when all is said and done) remain upright and hopefully stay in the pocket more. Cole Beasley will be a nice safety net for Allen and the tandem of the age-defying Frank Gore and rookie Devin Singletary will be a solid one-two punch out of the backfield. The Bills will be better than last season, but not playoff caliber.

Miami Dolphins

2018 Record: 7-9

2019 Win Total: 4.5

The Pick: UNDER

What a weird offseason in South Beach. Adam Gase is out, Brian Flores is in. The Dolphins trade for disgruntled 2018 first round pick Josh Rosen, but then bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick. It appears the Dolphins are tanking for the first overall pick, even if they won’t admit it. Miami shipped out Wide Receiver Kenny Stills, Offensive Tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Linebacker Kiko Alonso (PLEASE New Orleans, make this guy wear a jersey that actually fits). “Fitzmagic” may strike a few times a few times early in the season, but the Dolphins will be fighting for the number one pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

2018 Record: 9-6-1

2019 Win Total: 9

The Pick: UNDER (Push)

The Steelers had generational talents at Wide Receiver and Running Back going into last season, and now, neither one of them is still with the team! The spotlight will fully be on Juju Smith-Schuster as he will now draw the top cornerback each week with Antonio Brown now in Oakland. Big Ben is only going to get worse and Mike Tomlin will make the wrong decision in a crucial moment like he usually does. It feels like the Steelers have been passed over by both Baltimore and Cleveland, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they somehow finish 9-7. Stay away from this one.

Cleveland Browns 

2018 Record: 7-8-1

2019 Win Total: 9

The Pick: OVER

Ready or not, here come the Browns! America’s new favorite team has big expectations for the first time since returning from the dead in 1999. Odell Beckham Jr. comes over from a trade with the Giants (No word on whether or not the kicking net came with him), and Kareem Hunt will join the team after his eight game suspension is up. The Browns have a lot of fire power and ego for first year head coach Freddie Kitchens to manage. I’m very eager to see how this team will respond to adversity they’ll face down the stretch and whether or not they’ll pack it in when they ultimately lose back-to-back games. With that all being said, they’re going to come out of the gates hot and should reach 9 wins to at least push on this total.

Baltimore Ravens

2018 Record 10-6

2019 Win Total: 8.5

The Pick: UNDER

I still can’t believe this team won the division last season, but I can believe how they followed it up: by getting crushed on Wild Card Weekend. The Chargers knew Lamar Jackson struggles throwing the ball, and I expect a lot of opponents to employ a similar defensive back heavy game plan to challenge Jackson this season. Factor in an almost all-new linebacking core and whatever is left of Earl Thomas III at safety now anchoring the defense, Baltimore will be taking a step back in 2019.

Cincinnati Bengals

2018 Record 6-10

2019 Win Total: 6

The Pick: UNDER

The good news Bengals fans? Marvin Lewis is finally gone! The bad news? The rest of the team is essentially still here. The Bengals are instantly more likeable now that Vontaze Burfict is now wearing Silver & Black with the Raiders (perfect place for him). AJ Green is already hurt, so are a few other projected starters, this is going to be a long season for Ohio’s other team, not that it’s out of the ordinary the past few seasons. 

AFC South 

Houston Texans

2018 Record:11-5

2019 Win Total: 8.5

The Pick: OVER

With Andrew Luck now out of the picture, the Texans should have no trouble taking care of business in the AFC South. Laremy Tunsil comes over to bolster an offensive line that should do a much better job protecting Deshaun Watson and creating holes for a rushing attack that despite the loss of Lamar Miller(ACL Tear) will still be solid with Duke Johnson Jr. and Carlos Hyde. The Texans may have gotten fleeced by the Seahawks in the Jadeveon Clowney trade but this defense, lead by JJ Watt, is still sack hungry. Even if they stumble out of the gate with two of their first three games coming on the road against double digit win teams from a year ago, Houston is the most complete team in this division.

Tennessee Titans

2018 Record: 9-7

2019 Win Total: 8

The Pick: UNDER (Push)

The Titans were sitting pretty heading into Week 17 with a “win and get in” scenario against the Colts at home. Not surprisingly, they blew it. Much the guy taken ahead of him in the 2015 NFL Draft, (Jameis Winston) it’s a make or break year for quarterback Marcus Mariota, and I don’t see him rising to the occasion. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan Tannehill takes over the starting job at some point this season. The Titans should be trying to position themselves for one of the many stud QB’s set to enter the league next year, but there’s just too much talent on this roster outside of quarterback to tank. 8-8 sounds right.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2018 Record: 5-11

2019 Win Total 8

The Pick: UNDER

Flashback to the end of Week 2 last season, the Jaguars seemed like they were a legit contender in the AFC, coming off an appearance in the AFC Championship and then thoroughly beating the Patriots at home. The Jags acted like they won the Super Bowl and must have forgotten they still had 13 games left in the season, going 3-11 the rest of the way. Jacksonville finally gave up on Blake Bortles, and replaced him with Nick Foles! The Jaguars will be better than a year ago, but with an unproven receiving core, and a perennially injured running back, eight wins seems high.

Indianapolis Colts

2018 Record: 10-6

2019 Win Total: 7.5

The Pick: UNDER

A month ago, things were set up nicely for the Colts heading into the season. Fresh off a playoff berth, a young offensive line that will only get better, a budding superstar on defense in Darius Leonard and a healthy Andrew Luck, it was good to be a Colts fan! Then, Andrew Luck retired and nobody knows what to expect from this team. That's why I’m taking the under here. Indy is stockpiling former Tom Brady backups however, so maybe some of the magic rubbed off on them and will help the Colts in 2019. I doubt it though.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

2018 Record: 12-4

2019 Win Total: 10.5

The Pick: OVER

Have Chief fans stopped whining about Overtime Rules, while neglecting to acknowledge that they allowed the Patriots to run the same exact play and convert on three straight third down plays in that same overtime? No? I didn’t think so. KC still has a ton of talent on offense and the most exciting player in the league in Patrick Mahomes, they’re gonna score a ton of points and pray the defense can get a stop when needed, much like last season. The Chiefs aren’t going anywhere and will be fighting for a first round bye come playoff time.

Los Angeles Chargers

2018 Record 12-4

2019 Win Total: 9.5

The Pick: OVER

Is that the over/under for Charger wins or for how many kids Philip Rivers has? The Chargers tied for the most wins in the AFC last season with the Chiefs, figured out how to stop the Ravens vaunted rushing attack, but then in true Charger fashion, thought they could run the exact same scheme against New England in Foxboro and proceeded to get curb stomped the Pats. Stud Running Back Melvin Gordon is holding out and has cut off contact with the team, Derwin James is out for at least half the season but I don’t think that's enough to keep the Bolts from winning 10 games. Rivers keeps them in every game, but on the other hand, Rivers is also the reason they lose close games. Even with that being said, this is a playoff team.

Denver Broncos

2018 Record: 6-10

2019 Win Total: 7

The Pick: UNDER

New Quarterback, new Head Coach, same mediocre Broncos team. In are Joe Flacco and Vic Fangio to replace Case Keenum and Vance Joseph, with Flacco being a placeholder until Drew Lock takes over. With no real receiving threats (Emmaunel Sanders is old and coming off injury), an aging defense now 4 years removed from that Super Bowl run and a tough schedule, it’s going to be a long year in Denver. 

Oakland Raiders

2018 Record: 4-12

2019 Win Total: 6

The Pick: OVER

I know I sound crazy, but I think the Raiders are going to surprise people this year. By surprise I mean, not be the worst team in the conference or the division for that matter. If Antonio Brown figures out his helmet drama, the offense will put up points. Jon Gruden’s rebuild is in full effect and they should take another step forward this year, before they move to Vegas in 2020.

Playoff Predictions

New England - x

Cleveland - x

Houston - x

Kansas City - x

Los Angeles

Pittsburgh

*x denotes division winner

Super Bowl Pick: Patriots over Saints

Waffles

Waffles

Dan Watkins, aka “Waffles” is the co-producer of the VB in the Middle Show here on WRKO! He is originally from Upstate New York but, don’t worry, he’s a huge Boston sports fan! Waffles graduated from URI a few years ago and tries to get down to... Read more

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