Waffles' NFL Week Three Picks Against the Spread

I battled back last week to finish 8-8 ATS, that was an improvement from Week one! Let's keep the ball rolling and keep on improving!

Lines courtesy of Vegas Insider as of Wednesday 9/18


Tennessee -1.5 over JACKSONVILLE

The Titans have won four straight games against the Jags and I expect that to continue when these two teams meet Thursday night in Florida. So far on Thursday night’s the road teams have not only covered, but straight up won! (I know it’s a small sample size…) I’m predicting that trend to continue in Week 3, and with such a small spread I have no worries about taking Tennessee. Let’s hope the team figuratively comes out on fire this time! The Pick: Tennessee 20 Jacksonville 13

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Denver

Aaron Rodgers and the Pack came out guns ablazin against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, before ultimately cooling off and not scoring in the second half. I expect Green Bay to come out hot and put this game out of reach early. Denver doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with Rodgers & co, and the Packers defense looks legit through two weeks of action. The Pick: Green Bay 28 Denver 10

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Detroit

The Eagles have not been impressive to start the 2019 season, having to rally back from a 17-0 deficit against the Redskins in Week 1, and blowing a fourth quarter lead against the Falcons in Week 2. The Lions on the other hand, have looked better than I thought they would to start the year, sitting at 1-0-1 (Technically Undefeated!) and beating the Chargers last week in a game that turned out to be a defensive struggle. I think both these teams show us who they really are this week and the Eagles come out on top comfortably. The Pick: Philadelphia 31 Detroit 21

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Baltimore

This is the game everyone will have their eyes on in the early window of games. Is Baltimore a legit threat in the AFC? We’ll have a much better idea after Sunday. The Ravens were flying high after torching the Dolphins in Week 1, and then came back down to earth as they had to fend off the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 2. The Chiefs haven’t been really tested yet, crushing the Jags and then dropping 28 in the second quarter on the Oakland Raiders last week. I expect Baltimore to hang around for a bit, but I can’t see Lamar Jackson getting into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes and coming out ahead. The Pick: Kansas City 34 Baltimore 24

BUFFALO -6 over Cincinnati

Circle the wagons! It’s the home opener for the Bills, (hide your fold out tables) Buffalo will open up 3-0, and they’ll be flying high heading into their matchup with the Patriots next week. Cincinnati isn’t very good,and they’re already complaining about fans leaving early, the Bengals will have a top ten pick in the 2020 draft, The Bills take this one with ease. The Pick: Buffalo 27 Cincinnati 14

Atlanta +1.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

I’m not sold enough on the Colts to take them against a better all around football team. I think Atlanta woke up last week against the Eagles and will come ready to play in Indy. This game will be a rock fight, I like the Falcons enough to not only take the points, but also pick them straight up. The Pick: Atlanta 28 Indianapolis 27

MINNESOTA -8.5 over Oakland

This is the first of five straight games away from the Oakland Coliseum for the Raiders, they jumped out to an early lead against the Chiefs before letting Patrick Mahomes do his thing in the second quarter. Minnesota looked like world beaters running the ball in Week One against Atlanta before tripping up last week in Green Bay, I like the Vikes at home to cover, and I think this is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins to get going. The Pick: Minnesota 30 Oakland 16

NEW ENGLAND -23 over NY Jets

Let’s see, a quarterback who was promoted from the practice squad within the last week making his first career start, on the road, against Bill Belichick and the Patriots? Sounds like a blowout. Even if Tom Brady is actually hurt, (the team says its nothing to worry about) and Sully from Southie had to play QB for New England, I’d like the Pats in a landslide. Move along. The Pick: New England 42 NY Jets 3

DALLAS -21.5 over Miami

This week is the first time in 32 years that there are two 20+ point favorites in the same week. Miami STINKS, and most of the team wants out. I’m not taking the Dolphins no matter the spread until they prove they actually look like they care on the field. The Pick: Dallas 41 Miami 10

TAMPA BAY -6.5 vs NY Giants

I’m hesitant on this one because I don’t fully believe the Bucs are a touchdown better than the Giants, but with Daniel Jones making his first career start, Tampa looking decent enough in their road win against Carolina, and the fact that the Giants have screwed me in each of the first two weeks of the season. I’m going with the Buccaneers. The Pick: Tampa Bay 23 NY Giants 13

ARIZONA +2.5 over Carolina 

Cam Newton is most likely out this week, meaning Kyle Allen will be starting for the Panthers. Allen has started one game in his career, Week 17 against the Saints, which he did win, but New Orleans was resting their starters having already locked in their playoff spot. Kyler Murray has looked decent enough through the first two games of his NFL Career, I think the rookie gets his first career win this week at home. The Pick: Arizona 21 Carolina 17

New Orleans +4.5 over SEATTLE

Teddy Bridgewater is making his first start this season as Drew Brees is sidelined for the next four to six weeks after having surgery on his thumb. A few years ago, Bridgewater looked like he may be the real deal with the Vikings, before suffering that gruesome injury that almost cost him his leg. The Seahawks have won their first two games by a combined three points, I think the close game trend will continue in Seattle. The Pick: Seattle 23 New Orleans 21

LA CHARGERS -3 over Houston 

This will be a fun matchup between two playoff teams from a season ago, both sitting at 1-1, with electric offenses and so-so defenses. The Chargers looked pathetic in Detroit and the Texans didn’t look much better at home against the Jaguars. I think this game will come down to the wire, with the game on Philip Rivers shoulders, and typically when that's the case it’s an epic game winning drive or a terrible mistake with the ball ending up in the hands of the opposition. I think Rivers gets the job done here. Go Chargers go! The Pick: LA Chargers 31 Houston 27

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 over Pittsburgh

This game comes down to one question, who do you trust more? Jimmy G or Mason Rudolph? I’m leaning towards Garoppolo and the 49ers, they’re returning home 2-0 after opening the season with two games on the East Coast, and that is no small feat regardless of who they played. Pittsburgh is a mess, so much so that they don’t even know what they want to do this season now that Ben Roethlisberger(elbow) is out for the season. They just traded their upcoming first round pick to the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick! 49ers win this one to move to 3-0. The Pick: San Francisco 30 Pittsburgh 14

LA Rams -3 over CLEVELAND

I don’t know about you, but I’m not impressed with Cleveland at all so far this year. Last week’s win against the Jets was meaningless in the court of public opinion, I can’t see them beating the defending NFC Champions in primetime. I like the Rams here. The Pick: LA Rams 33 Cleveland 21

Chicago -4 over WASHINGTON

Is this the week the Bears finally look like the team people thought they’d be? I think so, Washington has hung around in their first two games but I think this Bears defense will prevent that as long as the Bears offense can put points on the board (Which is no sure thing). Give me Chicago in a ugly Monday night game. The Pick: Chicago 20 Washington 10.

 Last Week ATS: 8-8

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7

Season ATS: 14-18

Season Straight Up: 20-11-1



Dan Watkins, aka “Waffles” is the co-producer of the VB in the Middle Show here on WRKO! He is originally from Upstate New York but, don’t worry, he’s a huge Boston sports fan! Waffles graduated from URI a few years ago and tries to get down to... Read more


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