Waffles' Week Four Picks Against the Spread

It's been a slow start to the season for yours truly, a few back door covers (looking at you Ravens and Jets) set me back last week to another ugly final Win/Loss record in Week Three. That's in the past now and we have to keep pushing forward, string together a few good weeks before I put myself in too deep of a hole. Lets get to the Week Four slate.

All spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider as of 9/25

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Philadelphia +4 over GREEN BAY

This week’s Thursday Night matchup features two teams that I have been thoroughly unimpressed with. The Eagles had to mount a huge comeback Week One against the Redskins, and followed it up by choking away a fourth quarter lead to the Falcons, and then lost to the Lions (Technically Undefeated!) at home this past week. Green Bay on the other hand is 3-0, but they haven’t looked great on offense by any means, the defense however looks legit although they haven’t exactly faced high powered offenses the first three weeks. (Bears, Vikings, Broncos) So far the underdogs are 3-0 on Thursday Nights, and I am 0-3, for that reason alone, I’m taking the Eagles to cover. The Pick: GREEN BAY 24 Philadelphia 21

HOUSTON -4.5 over Carolina

A quality win last week for the Texans, beating the Chargers in Los Angeles by a touchdown. Kyle Allen, making his season debut for the Panthers, also looked good, completing throws that Cam Newton wasn’t making through the first two weeks of action. It appears the Allen will be starting again for Carolina, but the Texans are a better football team than the Arizona Cardinals, I don’t see him having the same kind of success in Houston as he did in the desert. The Pick: HOUSTON 30 Carolina 21

Cleveland +7 over BALTIMORE

Things are starting to get interesting in Cleveland, this team is getting exposed when they play quality opponents (Sorry Jets Fans). The talking heads are starting to turn on the team they were all so giddy about during the offseason, and especially on the quarterback, Baker Mayfield. He hasn’t quite had that magic from last season so far this year with the pressure on. Baltimore comes in after hanging in with the Chiefs all though they never really had a shot to win that game, Kansas City would have scored whenever they wanted too. We’re going to learn a lot about this Browns squad this week, the pressures on in their first inter-division tilt. I think they’re going to cover and outright win this one. The Pick: Cleveland 28 BALTIMORE 27

NY GIANTS -3 over Washington

What a start to the Daniel Jones era, with a comeback win on the road in Tampa Bay (helped out by some bonehead decisions by Bruce Arians). Washington is having a miserable start to the 2019 season and it’s only going to get worse as long as Case Keenum is the starting quarterback. Don’t look now, but the New York Football Giants will be sitting in second place in the NFC East at the end of September, who woulda thought that? The Pick: NY GIANTS 27 Washington 20

MIAMI +16 over LA Chargers

The Dolphins ALMOST covered last week in Dallas, they hung in there for about a quarter and a half! The Chargers are notorious for slow starts in the 1pm Eastern Time slot, which may even allow the Dolphins to have a lead at one point! (Scaring the crap out of the thousands who will take LA in Survivor this week.) If there’s one decent team that I could see slipping up against the wretched Miami Dolphins it would be Philip Rivers’ Chargers. But, I don’t think it’s actually going to happen, the Phins will cover though. The Pick: LA Chargers 24 MIAMI 10

INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Oakland

Through three weeks it sure looks like the Colts have found their solution to the “Life After Andrew Luck” problem. Jacoby Brissett has completed 72% of his passes to go along with seven touchdown passes. Oakland’s been a mess for a long time besides their Week One win against Denver. I like the Colts here at home comfortably. The Pick: INDIANAPOLIS 28 Oakland 17

Kansas City -6.5 over DETROIT

Nobody is actually buying in on the (Undefeated!) Detroit Lions, right? They’re going to get put in their place Sunday by the Chiefs, this one will get ugly quick. The Pick: Kansas City 35 DETROIT 16

New England -7 over BUFFALO

Here we go, the battle of the unbeatens in the AFC East! Bills Mafia will be ready, but will the Bills themselves be? I don’t think so. Did you know, since 2001, Tom Brady has more wins at the Ralph than any Bills QB? It’s true. Josh Allen & Co may have had success the first three weeks, but the Pats defense is significantly better than any of the others Buffalo has faced thus far. The Pick: New England 31 BUFFALO 13

ATLANTA -4 over Tennessee

My new strategy with the Falcons is pretty simple, if they’re home I’m taking them, if they’re on the road, I’m not. Marcus Mariota stinks, and I think the Titans are finally realizing that. We may get a Tannehill sighting! Dirty Birds win by more than a Touchdown. The Pick: ATLANTA 28 Tennessee 17

LA RAMS -9.5 over Tampa Bay

This game shouldn’t be close, the Rams are a far superior team to the Bucs, and I think Aaron Donald is going to improve on his performance this past week by having a field day against this Tampa Bay O-line. Jameis is going to make mistakes, and the Rams will capitalize. Let’s just hope for Bruce Arians sake, he doesn’t have any major blunders, like thinking his kicker is better from further away. The Pick: LA RAMS 31 Tampa Bay 14

ARIZONA +5 over Seattle

Every Seahawks game has been a dog fight thus far, with their two wins coming by a combined three points. The Cardinals have hung around in every game and I expect them to do that again this week at home. Kyler Murray should be able to do his thing against this Seattle defense, and a late field goal will be the difference for the Hawks. The Pick: Seattle 24 ARIZONA 21

Minnesota +2 over CHICAGO

I can’t trust Mitchell Trubisky, I don’t like trusting Kirk Cousins but I’ll take him over Trubisky any day of the week and twice on Sunday. The Bears have a serious QB problem, and it’s going to prevent them from reaching their potential, which is what we’ve seen so far this season. I don’t care what Trubisky did against Washington, that team is a dumpster fire. Vikes take care of business in Chicago. The Pick: Minnesota 23 CHICAGO 17

Jacksonville +3 over DENVER

Everybody loves Gardner Minshew, and how could you not with that mustache?! This will be an ugly game that’s going to come down to whoever has the ball last. While I think, Denver will ultimately come out on top, I think it will be by less than a field goal. The Pick: DENVER 21 Jacksonville 20

Dallas -2.5 over NEW ORLEANS

I really like what Teddy Bridgewater has done stepping in for the injured Drew Brees so far, unfortunately for the Saints, I like what Dak Prescott has been doing for Dallas even more. (Pay that man!) This is going to be a fun back and forth Sunday Night matchup with the Cowboys eventually pulling away on the legs of Eziekel Elliot. The Pick: Dallas 34 NEW ORLEANS 28

Cincinnati +4 over Pittsburgh

New year, same story on Monday Night Football: Crappy Matchups. This will be close, but not in the good entertaining way, more likely in the “Oh my god will one of these teams just score and pull away already” kind of way. Pittsburgh is a mess and should be tanking for a high pick, oh wait that’s right they traded their first round pick to the Dolphins, what a joke! People are not going to be happy in the Steel City after the Bengals stroll into town and leave victorious. The Pick: Cincinnati 23 PITTSBURGH 21

BYE WEEK: San Francisco, NY Jets

Last Week:

ATS: 6-10

SU: 9-7

Season Total:

ATS 20-28

SU 29-18-1

Waffles

Waffles

Dan Watkins, aka “Waffles” is the co-producer of the VB in the Middle Show here on WRKO! He is originally from Upstate New York but, don’t worry, he’s a huge Boston sports fan! Waffles graduated from URI a few years ago and tries to get down to... Read more

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