Waffles NFL Week One Picks Against the Spread

The Preseason is over and the real games are set to start, that means one thing: Let's make some money! Each week this NFL Season I am going to give you my picks for each game against the spread and straight up, it’s like I’m giving you free money! Alright let's get started….

Lines Courtesy of Vegas Insider Consensus Spreads

Home team written in CAPS

CHICAGO (-3) over Green Bay

In the annual Thursday Night Kickoff Game, the home team is 14-2 dating back to 2003. I expect this trend to continue Thursday at Soldier field. The Bears are the more complete team, and would’ve swept the Packers last season if not for some last minute heroics in Week 1 by a hobbled Aaron Rodgers. Khalil Mack won’t let that happen two years in a row. The Pick: Chicago 23 Green Bay 17

Atlanta (+4) over MINNESOTA

VB is screaming at me as I type this for potentially jinxing his Falcons, but they’re fully healthy to start the year and I believe a better team than Minnesota. They were an abysmal 5-11 against the spread, but it’s a new year and I’m feeling good about Atlanta keeping this game at least within a field goal. The Pick: Minnesota 31 Atlanta 28

PHILADELPHIA (-10) over Washington

This game will be a rout, Carson Wentz is back and I fully expect him to show that nothing is ailing him by slinging the ball all over the place. On top of that Washington is one of the worst teams in the league, and have lost each of their last two trips to Lincoln Financial Field by double digits. The Pick: Philadelphia 31 Washington 13

NY JETS (-3) over Buffalo

This game is virtually a push but the Jets are 3 point favorites for being at home. I expect them to feed Le’veon Bell early and often, then let Sam D’Arnold take care of the rest. The Bills may have looked good and gone 4-0 in the preseason, but now that the real games are starting, they’ll revert to being the Buffalo Bills we all know and love. The Pick: NY Jets 21 Buffalo 17

MIAMI (+7) over Baltimore 

Are you ready for “Fitzmagic”? Ryan Fitzpatrick has been named the starting quarterback for the Dolphins, and we’ve all seen this movie before, he’ll come out of the gates the first few weeks lighting up the scoreboard before he turns back into a pumpkin and ultimately gets replaced in midseason. I don’t think Miami will win this one, but they’ll hang in there long enough to give anyone who takes Baltimore in their Survivor Pool a good scare. The Pick: Baltimore 23 Miami 20

San Francisco (Even) over TAMPA BAY

I firmly believe the Bucs are the worst team in the NFC if not the entire NFL, I’m also very curious to see how Jimmy Garoppolo starts out after a miserable preseason and training camp. The 49ers are the better team and despite this game being played on the East Coast the start time is 1:25 PST, so no extra early wake up for San Fran traveling across the country. The Pick: San Francisco 27 Tampa Bay 23

Kansas City (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE

This line is much closer than I thought it would be when the schedule was first announced. Either Vegas thinks a lot of Nick Foles and the Jags offense being able to keep up with KC, or that their defense can slow down the high flying Chiefs offense. I have no faith in Jacksonville to keep pace, even at home. The Pick: Kansas City 38 Jacksonville 21

CLEVELAND (-5.5) over Tennessee

Here we go, get ready for the talking heads to gush over the Browns victory Monday Morning. I think Cleveland will come out of the gate hot, grab an early lead and force the Titans to play catch up, which they’re not built to do. The Browns will be 1-0 for the first time since 2004. The Pick: Cleveland 28 Tennessee 20

LA Rams (-2.5) over CAROLINA

Normally I’m hesitant to take west coast teams in the early time slot but Aaron Donald is going to destroy the Panthers offensive line. Add in that Cam Newton is already banged up, and that the Rams will want to come out guns blazing after only managing to score THREE points in the Super Bowl. I like LA big in this one. The Pick: LA Rams 28 Carolina 17

Detroit (-2.5) over ARIZONA

This may be the worst matchup of the weekend. Both these teams are going nowhere this year but first overall pick Kyler Murray is starting for the Cardinals so that alone is worth tuning in to. However, rookie QB’s first starts rarely go well, for that reason I’m taking the Lions. The Pick: Detroit 26 Arizona 23

SEATTLE (-9.5) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati is not very good, add in that they’re opening up the season with a rookie head coach in one of the toughest places to play, this smells like a blowout. Seattle’s offense should have no problem moving the ball all over the Bengals D. I think it will be a big day for the Seahawks running backs. The Pick: Seattle 27 Cincinnati 14

Indianapolis (+6.5) over LA CHARGERS

I don’t think the Colts will be as bad as a lot of people think now that Andrew Luck has retired. Jacoby Brissett will be able to manage this game enough to keep Indy within a touchdown. The Chargers were also very shaky at home last season, that will continue to start 2019. The Pick: LA Chargers 31 Indianapolis 28

DALLAS (-7) over NY Giants

Eziekel Elliot is back, and he’s now the highest paid running back in the NFL, I expect the Cowboys to feed him early and often and the Giants won’t have an answer to stop him. Dallas rolls in this one. The Pick: Dallas 24 NY Giants 17

NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Pittsburgh

Tom Brady has never lost to the Steelers in Foxboro and he routinely shreds Mike Tomlin’s defense whenever these two teams meet. Expect more of the same Sunday night, lets hope Tomlin doesn’t blame it on faulty headsets after this year’s ass kicking like he did back in 2016. The Pick: New England 34 Pittsburgh 20

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Houston

The Saints are going to be out for blood this year after the way the NFC Championship game ended. First victim, the Houston Texans. Houston does have the fire power to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees and New Orleans’ offense, but I think the Saints pull away early in the fourth quarter. The Pick: New Orleans 38 Houston 28

Denver (Even) over OAKLAND

Antonio Brown has been suspended by his own team in the weird offseason/training camp/preseason/regular season saga that gets more ridiculous with each passing day. The Raiders are a mess behind the scenes and that’s going to spill onto the field in Week 1. Is it too late to change my o/u pick for the Raiders? The Pick: Denver 23 Oakland 14

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