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Well, last week was rough. Matthew Stafford being out along with quite a few favorites that I took falling flat on their faces (looking at you Saints and Chiefs) brought me my worst week since September. I'm a game over .500 against the season so we have to start picking up some wins here fast.
Lines courtesy of Vegas Insider.
Home team in CAPS.
Pittsburgh +3 over CLEVELAND
Thursday night underdogs are 8-2 against the spread this year (Pats and Chiefs are the two favorites to cover) so I’m all in on the Steelers this week. Even if you don’t buy into the Thursday night dog thing, I think the Steelers are the safer bet here as Cleveland is a disaster, even after beating the Bills at home this past week. Baker Mayfield is complaining that the fans are too loud while the Browns are on offense, I’m over the whole Baker Mayfield experience, the Browns will be back in the QB market sooner rather than later. The Pick: Pittsburgh 23 Cleveland 20
Dallas -4.5 over DETROIT
Matthew Stafford hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday. I can’t trust Jeff Driskel to beat a Cowboys team that desperately needs a win after losing to the Vikings at home last week. If Dallas doesn’t regroup this week against the Lions, they could be staring at a long losing streak, as a trip to Foxboro awaits them next week. The Pick: Dallas 31 Detroit 24
New Orleans -5.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Saints put up an absolute stinker last week at home, losing to the pathetic Falcons, giving Atlanta just their second win on the year, I like the Saints to bounce back big time, and Drew Brees to put up a monster game against this awful Buccaneers pass defense, which ranks dead last in the league in pass yards allowed per game. The Pick: New Orleans 35 Tampa Bay 24
CAROLINA -5.5 over Atlanta
The Panthers were so close to beating the Packers at snowy Lambeau Field this past week, Christian McCaffrey was stopped at the one yard as time expired allowing Green Bay to escape with the win. I think Carolina will take out their frustration on the Falcons, who aren’t as good as they played last weekend. The Pick: Carolina 23 Atlanta 14
Jacksonville +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Nick Foles is back and that’s good news for the Jaguars who need to start winning football games if they want to have a chance at the playoffs. Jacoby Brissett is back as well and that’s good news for the Colts, as Brian Hoyer couldn’t lead the team to a win against the lowly Dolphins at home. Adam Vinatieri has been missing kicks just about every week and I think he’s going to cost Indy in this divisional battle. The Pick: Jacksonville 24 Indianapolis 21
Denver +10.5 over MINNESOTA
This game screams trap game to me. By no means do I expect the Broncos to roll into Minneapolis and come away victorious against the Vikings, but I do think they’ll be competitive. The Broncos have hung around in every game this season, except against the Chiefs on a Thursday night. Denver has covered in four out of the last five games, they’re going to make it five out of six? Why am I so confident? Because Kirk Cousins should shred this team, which means he won’t. The Pick: Minnesota 23 Denver 14
NY Jets +1.5 over WASHINGTON
What a crap fest this game is. Will the Jets get their first road win? Or will the Redskins get their first home victory? Dwayne Haskins has been named the starting quarterback for the Skins for the rest of the season, the Jets defense should be licking their chops getting to face rookie QB’s in back to back weeks. I think D’Arnold will have no trouble putting up points against this team.The Pick: NY Jets 26 Washington 17
Buffalo -6 over MIAMI
The Miami Dolphins are on a winning streak!! I didn’t think I’d type that sentence this season, and you didn’t think you’d be reading it. Unfortunately for the Phins, the good times end this weekend when Buffalo comes to town. The Bills defense will slow down any momentum this Miami team has built. And, with a week to go before Thanksgiving, the Buffalo Bills will be 7-3! Who outside of Western New York would’ve thought that? The Pick: Buffalo 21 Miami 10
Houston +4 over BALTIMORE
This is going to be a fun one in Baltimore this weekend. Two division leaders battling it out, with ramifications on playoff seeding on the line The Texans bring with them the third ranked run defense in the NFL. They’re going to need to flex those muscles against the Ravens vaunted rushing attack. I think the Texans are going to sneak out of Baltimore with a last second win. The Pick: Houston 31 Baltimore 28
Arizona +11 over SAN FRANCISCO
I find this spread a little surprising with how big it is, these teams just played two weeks ago and the 49ers narrowly escaping Arizona with a three point victory. George Kittle will be out again for San Fran, and Emmanuel Sanders status is up in the air as well. So, with Jimmy G’s top two options potentially out this week, I like the Cards to hang in there and cover in this one. The Pick: San Francisco 27 Arizona 21
PHILADELPHIA +3.5 over New England
Here we go, the Super Bowl 52 rematch we’ve all been waiting for. The Linc will be rocking for this late afternoon kickoff, and it’s going to be a tremendous game. I think the Eagles will cover the 3.5 point spread, but I see Tom Brady leading a last minute drive successfully this time against the Eagles, hitting N’Keal Harry for the game winning touchdown in the final seconds to escape Philly with the win. The Pick: New England 30 Philadelphia 28
Cincinnati +10.5 over OAKLAND
Look, I know the Bengals are hot garbage, but the Raiders have only won once this season by more than a touchdown, and not at all by double digits. Does that change this week? Maybe, but I don’t think so. Oakland wins, but Cincy covers. The Pick: Oakland 26 Cincinnati 17
LA RAMS -6.5 over Chicago
Prime Time Mitchell Trubisky this week, you know what that means? Rams in a rout. Only reason the Bears won last week was because Jeff Driskel was the starting quarterback for the Lions. The Pick: LA Rams 28 Chicago 13
Kansas City -3.5 over LA CHARGERS
I expect the Chiefs to bounceback nicely after that disaster ending against the Titans in Week 10, Mahomes looks like nothing is ailing him after that knee injury, he’s going to shred the Chargers on Monday night, but they’ll barely cover because their defense is awful. The Pick: Kansas City 31 LA Chargers 27
Byes: Green Bay, NY Giants, Seattle, Tennessee
Last Week
ATS: 5-7-1
SU: 5-8
Season Total
ATS:73-72-3
SU: 92-55-1