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The regular season is in the books, the past four months really flew bye. I finished the regular season at a respectable 131-118-7 ATS (51%, the "experts" at bettingpros.com finished at 48.8%). With all that now in the rear-view mirror, it's time to focus are attention on the playoffs.
All spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider
Home team in CAPS
WILD CARD ROUND
SATURDAY
Buffalo +2.5 over HOUSTON
While it will be an emotional return from injury for JJ Watt this week, I think the Bills will be able to weather the storm in the first quarter and ride their running game, leaving less for Josh Allen to have to do with his arm. Besides, how many times have we seen this story before with Bill O’Brien and the Texans before? They win the division, host a home playoff game with everyone thinking this is the year Houston finally makes some noise in January. Remember last year, when the Colts held them scoreless till the fourth quarter? This Bills defense is much better than Indy’s last season, and I’m not sure the Texans offense is any better. I’m not falling for it, and neither should you. The Pick: Buffalo 23 Houston 21
Tennessee +5 over NEW ENGLAND
Is this the end of the Patriots’ dynasty? FS1 sure wants you to think so! (They have a ticker on their channel counting down the hours and minutes until the Patriots-Titans game on Saturday night.) I don’t think it ends at Gillette this week, and I don’t think it’s Tom Brady’s last home game as the Patriots quarterback either. I do however, think this is going to be a nail biter and that Tennessee will cover the five point spread. Derrick Henry is an absolute beast running the football and will keep Brady off the field for long stretches. Ryan Tannehill has resurrected his career this season with the Titans, going 7-3 as a starter and developing great chemistry with rookie A.J. Brown. But, he’s 0-6 lifetime in Foxboro, Belichick knows this guy and I expect the defense to be much better than last week. New England moves on to Kansas City, but I don’t think they;ll score enough to cover. The Pick: New England 21 Tennessee 17
SUNDAY
NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Minnesota
The Saints offense is firing on all cylinders and Minnesota isn’t going to be able to stop them. Saints are on a revenge tour for the way the past two seasons have ended for them, the non-pass-interference call in last season’s NFC Championship game and the Minnesota Miracle two years ago (Stefon Diggs won’t be getting behind any corner back this year…) plus, do you trust Kirk Cousins? I don’t and even though Dalvin Cook says he’s at full strength I don’t believe him. The Pick: New Orleans 34 Minnesota 21
Seattle -1.5 over PHILADELPHIA
This one screams trap game, but I’m not hesitant at all about taking the Seahawks here, they were 7-1 on the road this season and with the lack of weapons at Carson Wentz’s disposal for the Eagles offense, I don’t think Philly will score enough to win. The NFC East was a joke this year, the Eagles are simply the best of the worst, Russell Wilson & coo should carve up this defense. The Pick: Seattle 24 Philadelphia 14
Last Week
ATS: 10-6
SU: 9-7
FINAL REGULAR SEASON TOTAL
ATS: 131-118-7
SU: 156-99-1