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Solid week last week going 10-6 but we can do better. A few interesting games this week, Baltimore-Buffalo, San Fran-New Orleans and Kansas City-New England just to name a few. Lets get to it.
Lines courtesy of Vegas Insider
Home Team in CAPS
Dallas -3 over CHICAGO
Both of these teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. When picking this game it comes down to one question: who do you trust more? The answer for me is Dallas. I think Dak, Zeke & co will get the job done while the Cowboys defense will force Mitchell Trubisky to turn the ball over a few times. The Pick: Dallas 27 Chicago 17
Baltimore -5.5 over BUFFALO
This one feels too easy, the Bills have one win against a team that currently has a record over .500(Titans), they’ve cleaned up on the cupcake teams on their schedule. The Ravens are a whole different monster, even at home, I don’t see Buffalo stopping this Baltimore rushing attack. The Pick Baltimore 31 Buffalo 21
GREEN BAY -13 over Washington
I’m a little snake bitten by double spreads after last week (1-2) with Washington not only covering the 10 point spread at Carolina but winning the game out right. I’m picking against them again when their getting more than ten points for a few reasons, one, the Packers are better than the Panthers, two, Aaron Rodgers is going to post gaudy stats against the Skins Defense and three, I think last week was Washington’s one “rah rah” win of the year. Green Bay in a rout. The Pick: Green Bay 38 Washington 14
Denver +9.5 over HOUSTON
I feel a let down coming for the Texans after the high of beating the Pats on Sunday Night Football this past week. Denver comes in after hanging on to beat the Chargers, and Drew Lock looks like he can play. I don’t expect the Broncos to beat Houston, but I think they’ll surprise the Texans and hang around till the end of this one. The Pick: Houston 27 Denver 21
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over San Francisco
It’s a crime that this game is in the early 1pm window, it should’ve been flexed to SNF. I like the Saints in this one for a few reasons, the game is at home, they come off the mini bye after playing Thanksgiving night, and San Francisco having to travel back across the country for a second straight week. The Pick: New Orleans 28 San Francisco 23
Cincinnati +8.5 over CLEVELAND
It took until this week, but finally every team in the NFL has at least one win this season! The Bengals took down the Jets last week and with Andy Dalton back under center I think they’ll be able to hang in with the Browns too. Cleveland is a bunch of frauds and if Cincy can score early, I think the Browns will become frustrated with each other pretty quickly. Fortunately for them, I don’t think that means they’ll lose the game. Browns win, Bengals cover. The Pick: Cleveland 27 Cincinnati 20
Carolina +3 over ATLANTA
Ron Rivera is out of a job in Carolina, Perry Fewell steps in as the Interim HC for the Panthers, I think this will light a little bit of a fire under this Carolina squad, who are coming off an embarrassing loss at home against the Redskins. Atlanta needs to make up their mind what they’re doing this season. They won’t be making the playoffs, but they may play themselves out of a high draft pick if they win a few games down the stretch here. The Panthers aren’t quite dead yet, so I think they’ll win this one and keep their season alive. The Pick: Carolina 26 Atlanta 23
MINNESOTA -13 over Detroit
The Lions stink, Minnesota beat them by 12 in Detroit, I expect more of a beatdown in this one with it being in Minnesota. The Pick: Minnesota 38 Detroit 21
NY JETS -5.5 over Miami
No way the Jets can lose to the Dolphins twice this season right? It would be hilarious if they did. But, after that embarrassing loss to the Bengals I think Gang Green bounces back at home and Sam D’Arnold lights up the Miami secondary. The Pick: NY Jets 34 Miami 27
Indianapolis +3 over TAMPA BAY
I can’t. I just can’t bring myself to take the Bucs in this one. The Colts need a win badly after losing back-to-back divisional contests, and now they get three straight against the NFC South. I think Jacoby Brissett will have a big day against this awful secondary. Tampa is also just 1-4 at home this year, I think that ugly trend continues in this one. The Pick: Indianapolis 28 Tampa Bay 24
LA Chargers -3 over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville has lost four in a row, they benched Nick Foles in the middle of the game last week, Gardner Minschew didn’t help improve things. The Chargers come in off a loss at Mile High vs the Broncos. This game feels like one where Phillip Rivers looks fantastic, only to put up a complete dud next week. The Pick LA Chargers 31 Jacksonville 23
NEW ENGLAND -3 over Kansas City
It’s that time of the year, the sky is falling in Foxboro, Brady looks like a 42 year old quarterback, the receivers are too slow and can’t gain any separation and the defense has been figured out by opposing offenses. This all sets up for the annual, “The Pats are just fine” game. This Patriots team was built to beat the Chiefs, they can matchup with KC’s receivers, the Chiefs are down to just two healthy running backs, and they themselves can’t stop the run. I think the running backs for the Pats are going to have a huge game in this one, and the Patriots move to 11-2 on the season with games against the Bengals, Bills and Dolphins to close out the year. The Pick: New England 28 Kansas City 24
Pittsburgh -2.5 over ARIZONA
The Steelers have been very shaky away from Heinz Field, but I really like how they’re playing defensively and I think they can muster up enough offense to get by a crappy Cardinals team. I’m on the Duck Hodges bandwagon….for now. The Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Arizona 21
OAKLAND +2.5 over Tennessee
The Raiders are a completely different team at home, where they are 5-1 this year. I also think some people are getting way too high on Ryan Tannehill and his career renaissance with the Titans. Tennessee has won three straight since Tannehill took over the starting job from Marcus Mariota, so they’re due for a hiccup and I think a cross country trip to the Black Hole is just the place for that to happen. The Pick: Oakland 27 Tennessee 24
Seattle -1 over LA RAMS
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 away from home this season, I don’t think there’s anything special about this Rams team, and their depleted offensive line is going to get overrun by Jadevon Clowney and the rest of Seattle’s front seven. The Pick: Seattle 34 LA Rams 20
PHILADELPHIA -9.5 over NY Giants
I’m not taking the Giants in a must win game for the Eagles, and neither should you. The Pick: Philadelphia 35 NY Giants 17
Last Week
ATS: 10-6
SU: 9-7
Season Total
ATS: 100-89-3
SU: 120-71-1