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Week 14 was an absolute disaster for me, going 5-9-2 ATS. After making up ground in my year long pool Thanksgiving week, I fell right back down to where I was before Week 13. With three weeks left, you have to string together three good/great weeks to win your year long pools. Here goes nothing.
All spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider.com
Home Team in CAPS
NY Jets +14.5 over BALTIMORE
I went away from my “Thursday Night Underdog’ rule last week and it came back to bite me. Partially because the Cowboys couldn’t tackle but I’ll let that go. The Ravens have had to grind out wins the past few weeks, likely because they went against two fantastic defenses in those games but the Jets come in winning four out of five and they’re getting more than two touchdowns on a short week. I think gang green can keep it within two TD’s. The Pick: Baltimore 28 NY Jets 17
Tampa Bay -3.5 over DETROIT
Mike Evans is out for the year now for the Bucs. But, still no Stafford, still not taking the Lions. The Pick: Tampa Bay 31 Detroit 21
Philadelphia -4.5 over WASHINGTON
I think Monday night’s overtime win will rally this Eagle team to go on a little bit of a run here, setting up a winner take all divisional showdown against the Cowboys next week. Washington is terrible and can’t wait for the season to end. I expect to see a lot of empty seats at this one. The Pick: Philadelphia 28 Washington 13
GREEN BAY -4.5 over Chicago
A win over Chicago would all but end the Bears playoff hopes and also get the Packers one step closer to clinching the NFC North title. I can’t think of any more motivation for Aaron Rodgers (if he even needed any) for this one. With this one at Lambeau, I like the Pack to easily take care of business. The Pick: Green Bay 27 Chicago 14
New England -9.5 over CINCINNATI
The only reason the Pats will cover is because they are CHEATERS!!! Kidding, New England shouldn’t have any problems in this one. I hope. The Pick: New England 27 Cincinnati 6
TENNESSEE -3 over Houston
I’m all in on the Ryan Tannehill resurrection (for the regular season anyway), the Titans have a chance to leap frog Houston, in a 3 week stretch that would be nothing short of a disaster for the Texans. They finally beat the Patriots, showing people that perhaps this team is different, only to follow it up with the worst loss by any team in the league this year (L 38-24 Denver) and then coughing up their lead in the AFC South this week. It would not be a good look for Bill O’Brien. I think the Titans beat up on them in Nashville. The Pick: Tennessee 24 Houston 17
Seattle -6 over CAROLINA
The Panthers have quit, Seattle needs a win to keep the pressure on the 49ers for the NFC West title and possible home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I also like the Seahawks because they were embarrassed by the Rams on Sunday Night Football this past week. I expect a big rebound game for Russell Wilson & co. The Pick: Seattle 31 Carolina 17
KANSAS CITY -9.5 over Denver
This line opened at KC -13.5 and has swung four points in Denver’s direction! Why? I think last week’s performance against the Texans was more about Houston overlooking the Broncos rather than Denver being a good football team. I smell a KC rout. The Pick: Kansas City 38 Denver 24
Miami +3.5 over NY GIANTS
Ugly game in the Meadowlands this weekend, we’re not sure who the Quarterback is for the Giants, and if New York wins, they’ll fall from the number two pick in the draft this year. I think it will be a field goal game regardless of who wins so I’ll take the points with Miami. The Pick: Miami 20 NY Giants 17
OAKLAND -6.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars stink, and the Raiders have been good at home, and this is the last game at the Black Hole in Oakland. I like the Raiders in an emotionally charged victory. The Pick: Oakland 31 Jacksonville 21
Cleveland -2.5 over ARIZONA
The Cardinals have all but packed it in, I think this will be a fun one for Fantasy playoff purposes, but Cleveland should have no problem here. The Pick: Cleveland 34 Arizona 31
Atlanta +11 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Falcons just don’t seem to get it that their season ended about a month ago now. I think the Falcons offense will score enough points in this one to make things less comfortable than the 49ers would like. I’m feeling a late Jimmy G touchdown drive to win this one for San Francisco. The Pick: San Francisco 34 Atlanta 28
DALLAS +1 over LA Rams
The Cowboys have burned me so many times in the past month but I’m giving them one more shot to help me get a win. The Cowboys have to win to keep pace with the Eagles atop the NFC East. This game is a pick’em and I like Dallas at home. The Pick: Dallas 24 LA Rams 21
LA CHARGERS +2.5 over Minnesota
This one feels like a classic Philip Rivers game, a couple of Touchdowns, a couple of turnovers, but the Chargers will still be in a position to win this one at the end. I think Rivers pulls it out. The Pick: LA Chargers 28 Minnesota 24
Buffalo +2 over PITTSBURGH
The Buffalo Bills are on Sunday Night Football!! I think we’re in for a good one between two teams with stingy defenses, that can also run the ball and control the clock. I like the Bills in a low scoring defensive battle. The Pick: Buffalo 16 Pittsburgh 13
NEW ORLEANS -9 over Indianapolis
The Colts simply won’t be able to keep up with New Orleans, they just don’t have the offensive firepower. The Pick: New Orleans 34 Indianapolis 24
Last Week
ATS: 5-9-2
SU: 7-9
Season Total
ATS: 105-98-5
SU: 127-80-1