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I can't believe it is already Week 16! I love the Saturday slate this week and also that Thursday Night Football is over. I went 9-6-1 ATS last week to push me up to ten games over .500 on the season. Hopefully these last two weeks can propel me to an even better number.
Spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider
Home Teams in CAPS
SATURDAY GAMES
SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 over LA Rams
The Niners need to rebound in a big way after they lost in excruciating fashion against the Falcons last week. I think they will and that they’ll have no trouble with Jared Goff and the Rams offense. When these two met back in early October San Fran’s defense held Goff to 78 passing yards and sacked him four times. Expect more of the same on Saturday. The Pick: San Francisco 24 LA Rams 13
Buffalo +6.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Look, the Pats offense is terrible right now, throw in that Buffalo’s defense is very good, Julian Edelman is banged up and Tom Brady’s elbow is defintiely ailing him, New England is going to struggle putting up points. I do think the Patriots win this one, but the Bill will cover the 6.5. The Pick: New England 20 Buffalo 17
Houston -3 over TAMPA BAY
Deshaun Watson is going to have a field day against this defense, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller should both have big days too. I think Jameis will get his, but no Mike Evans, and potentially no Chris Godwin means I don’t think Tampa will have the firepower to keep up. The Pick: Houston 34 Tampa Bay 27
SUNDAY SLATE
MIAMI (E) over Cincinnati
The 2019 Toilet Bowl will take place in Miami this week. I'm taking the Dolphins simply because they're at home and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will pull this one out. The Bengals are atrocious. The Pick: Miami 27 Cincinnati 23
Detroit +7 over DENVER
This will be an ugly game, David Blough vs Drew Lock at quarterback, the Lions have lost seven straight and 10 of their last 11, but don’t worry Matt Patricia, your job is safe! I’m taking Detroit here only because I don’t see either team winning by a touchdown. The Pick: Detroit 24 Denver 21
Oakland +7 over LA CHARGERS
I’m done taking Philip Rivers, he’s screwed me over way too many times, Oakland comes in to this one losers of four straight, and I think they change that and sweep the Chargers for the first time since 2016. The Pick: Oakland 24 LA Chargers 21
ATLANTA -7 over Jacksonville
The Falcons offense has started to click the past few weeks, and as they have won four out of their last six they’ve seen their draft spot fall further and further down the board. I think they’ve shown life down the stretch here because they want Dan Quinn to keep his job. I see the offense continuing to click against this Jacksonville. The Pick: Atlanta 27 Jacksonville 14
New Orleans -3 over TENNESSEE
It appears the rebirth of Ryan Tannehill may already be a thing of the past. After losing to the Texans, the Titans now need to beat the Saints to keep their playoff hopes alive. Depending on what Tom Brady does Saturday, Drew Brees may have to break the all time touchdown pass record again this week, or just further extend his lead on TB12. Michael Thomas is eleven catches away from setting the single season reception record. New Orleans is going to throw all over the Titans. The Pick: New Orleans 34 Tennessee 21
WASHINGTON -2.5 over NY Giants
It looks like Daniel Jones will be back under center for the Giants this weekend, and I think that means advantage Washington? I’m not really sure how to pick this one since the loser gets the better draft spot in April. So I guess I’m leaning towards Washington. The Pick: Washington 21 NY Giants 17
Pittsburgh -3 over NY JETS
The Steelers shouldn’t have many problems against the Jets, but with Duck Hodges at quarterback for Pittsburgh, you never know. I like the Steelers defense to limit D’Arnold in this one. The Pick: Pittsburgh 23 NY Jets 17
Carolina +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
Will Grier is set to make his first career NFL start in this one. Grier was fun to watch in college while he was at West Virginia, and if he’s allowed to take some chances I think he’ll have success against the Colts lackluster defense. Indy’s season is over. The Pick: Carolina 24 Indianapolis 23
Baltimore -10 over CLEVELAND
When was the last time the Ravens lost? That would be way back in Week 4 against these Cleveland Browns! I don’t expect a repeat from Cleveland, in fact I see quite the opposite happening, the Ravens running the ball down their throats for 60 minutes. The Pick: Baltimore 38 Cleveland 21
Dallas -2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The winner of this game all but wins the NFC East title and gets to host a home playoff game in 2 weeks! I think Dallas is much better than Philly, and I feel far more comfortable picking the Cowboys after they crushed the Rams last week. Even with Dak Prescott a bit banged up, Dallas will roll the Eagles. The Pick: Dallas 31 Philadelphia 24
SEATTLE -9.5 over Arizona
If the Seahawks win out, they’ll have home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC. I think they’re going to wipe the floor with the Cardinals. As impressive as Kyler Murray has been, and he’s going to have a few wow moments in this one, he won’t be able to overcome his defense’s inefficiencies as Russell Wilson goes off. The Pick: Seattle 35 Arizona 24
Kansas City -6 over CHICAGO
Zero chance Mitchell Trubisky keeps up with Pat Mahomes & co, this has ugly Sunday night game written all over it. The Pick: Kansas City 31 Chicago 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Green Bay +5.5 over MINNESOTA
Aaron Rodgers in prime time with a chance to mess with the Vikings playoff chances? And the Vikings’ best player is out? Give me the Pack! The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 24
Last Week
ATS: 9-6-1
SU: 10-6
Season Total
ATS: 114-104-6
SU: 137-86-1