Another solid week this past week, but it could have been even better if Jamal Williams didn’t give himself up at the 2 yard line at the end of Monday Night’s Lions-Packers game. The Pack ended up winning by one, which was clearly not enough to cover the 3.5 point spread. Let’s put that behind us and move on to Week 7.
All lines courtesy of VegasInsider as of 10/16.
Home Team in CAPS
Kansas City -3 over DENVER
The Chiefs have not looked good the past two weeks, losing both games at home, and it’s becoming apparent that Kansas City is going to have to make an upgrade on the defensive side of the ball if they want to be taken seriously as a contender in the AFC. Denver on the other hand, has won back to back contests and they have the distinction of being the team that finally forced the Tennessee Titans to make a change at Quarterback.(More on that later) With this game being in Denver, I think the Broncos will hang around, especially because everybody and anybody can score on the Chiefs defense. But, with the line being less than a touchdown, give me Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Pick: Kansas City 28 DENVER 20
NY GIANTS -3 over Arizona
This is the first meeting between the Top Two Quarterbacks selected in the 2019 Draft, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, and I don’t have high hopes for a shootout between the two. Saqoun Barkley and Evan Engram are practicing in full, it appears Sterling Shepard is also on the field. Pair that information with the fact that this is a 1pm Eastern time start, I like the G-Men to cover the field goal spread against the Cards. The Pick: NY GIANTS 23 Arizona 17
Houston +1 over INDIANAPOLIS
These two AFC South rivals both looked impressive beating the Chiefs in KC over the past two weeks. Indy comes in off the bye but I don’t think it will help much in trying to shut down DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Jacoby Brissett has done a great job stepping in as the starter for the Colts, but this game is essentially a pick’em and I’m taking the better team, that’s Houston. The Pick: Houston 33 INDIANAPOLIS 24
Miami +17 over BUFFALO
Can Ryan Fitzpatrick storm into his old stomping grounds and upset the team with the second best win percentage in the AFC? No I don’t think so, but I do think the Dolphins can cover this ridiculous spread. Look, I think the Bills are going to be a playoff team, but with Josh Allen under center, he’s good for at least one if not more turnovers a week, and I think that will keep Miami within the 17 point spread. The Pick: BUFFALO 27 Miami 13
Minnesota -1 over DETROIT
This game opened as a pick’em, with the early money going on the Vikings. I agree with that trend as I think Kirk Cousins may have found his groove last week, hitting Stefon Diggs for three touchdowns in Minnesota’s impressive win over the Eagles. The Lions got jobbed by the refs Monday Night, and we’re going to find out what they’re made of this week at home against another rival. Unfortunately for Detroit, I think they’re going to crumble against the Vikes. The Pick: Minnesota 31 Detroit 21
GREEN BAY -5.5 over Oakland
You or I could be lining up at Wide Receiver for the Pack this week and it wouldn’t matter. Aaron Rodgers favored by less than a touchdown at home against this defense? Give me Green Bay all day. The Pick: GREEN BAY 28 Oakland 17
Jacksonville -3 over CINCINNATI
The battle of the jungle cats in Cincinnati this Sunday, and I’m on team Minshew for this one. The Bengals are awful, and I’m very interested to see how the Jaguars play now that they have shipped Jalen Ramsey out of town. I think the Jags offense will be able to move the ball at ease against Cincy, and will have no trouble covering the field goal spread. The Pick: Jacksonville 24 CINCINNATI 17
LA Rams -3 over ATLANTA
This is a very intriguing matchup in Atlanta this weekend. Both of these squads have not played well over the past few weeks, but the Rams have made a huge splash acquiring disgruntled star cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars for a pair of first round picks. Ramsey gets a huge challenge in his first game in a Rams uniform:cover Julio Jones. I think he’ll do just fine and L.A. will get back in the win column. The Pick LA Rams 34 ATLANTA 28
San Francisco -9.5 over WASHINGTON
The Jimmy G train rolls into our nation’s capital this weekend and I think the 49ers are going to crush the Redskins. Washington is awful, they almost lost to the Dolphins last week! I don’t see the 1pm East Coast start slowing San Fran down at all. The Pick: San Francisco 31 WASHINGTON 14
LA Chargers +2 over TENNESSEE
It appears the Marcus Mariota era is over in Nashville. The former 2nd overall pick has been relegated to backup duties by head coach Mike Vrabel, and Ryan Tannehill is now the starter for Tennessee. Tannehill isn’t much of an upgrade over Mariota, and I think the Chargers sack hungry defense will be in his face all day. The Chargers, like the Rams, desperately need to get back in the win column, the Bolts have lost four out of five with the lone win coming against the Dolphins. The Titans are just what the doctor ordered for the Bolts. The Pick: LA Chargers 30 TENNESSEE 23
SEATTLE -3.5 over Baltimore
I love the Seahawks here, I still can’t buy in on Lamar Jackson in games where he’s going to have to throw the ball a lot, which is what we have here. The Seahawks have shown so far that they are not to be taken lightly, and Russell Wilson is establishing himself as the top MVP candidate through six weeks of action. The Pick: SEATTLE 31 Baltimore 26
New Orleans +3 over CHICAGO
Teddy Bridgewater has yet to lose since stepping in for the injured Drew Brees, add in that the Saints defense has looked better and better with each passing week, and I don’t like the Bears chances this week, especially with their QB situation. Chase Daniel nor Mitchell Trubisky inspire much confidence, I’ll take the Saints. The Pick: New Orleans 20 CHICAGO 14
DALLAS -3 over Philadelphia
We should be in store for a fantastic Sunday Night game this week with Dallas and Philly both coming in off embarrassing losses. After starting out hot, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have cooled right off, culminating in their Week 5 loss against the Jets. The Eagles seem to be a different team every week, and I have no idea which one will show up in this one. I think it will be a tight contest, but I'll give Dallas the edge at home. The Pick: DALLAS 28 Philadelphia 24
New England -9.5 over NY JETS
I don’t care that Sam D’Arnold is back, he;s going to have a miserable time against this defense. The Patriots will roll in this one. The Pick: New England 30 NY JETS 13
Byes: Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay
Last Week
ATS: 8-6
SU: 8-6
Season Total
ATS: 45-46-2
SU: 55-36-1