Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly leads former President Donald Trump by a 1% margin, according to the latest national poll released by Emerson College on Friday (October 18).

Harris reportedly has a 49% to 48% advantage, while 1% of voters said they planned to support someone else and 2% were undecided weeks ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The vice president also had a 50% to 49% lead when undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward supporting.

“Women and male voters break in near opposite directions: men for Trump, 56% to 42%, and women for Harris, 55% to 41%” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Hispanic voters break for Harris, 61% to 35% and Black voters 81% to 12%, while white voters break for Trump 60% to 38%.”

Harris and Trump were previously reported to be locked in a "dead heat," according to the latest NBC News poll released on Sunday (October 13). Harris and Trump are tied at 48%, with 4% of respondents claiming they don't want to vote for either, would prefer another candidate or are not sure at the time the NBC News poll was conducted between October 4 and October 8.

The vice president previously held a 49% to 44% edge over Trump in the September 2024 NBC News poll, while Trump led President Joe Biden 45% to 43% in the July 2024 poll conducted prior to Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign. Last week, a Washington Post poll showed that Trump was extending his lead in Ohio, which he won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, by six points.

Harris was, however, reported to be leading Trump, 46% to 43%, nationally in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday (October 8), having previously led by a 2% margin, which does have a margin of error of about 3% points, meaning the two candidates remain in a tight race. On October 7, Trump was reported to have gained ground on Harris in the first Yahoo News/YouGov survey released after the vice presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz. Trump, who previously trailed by four points, is now tied with Harris at 47% among likely voters.

The Kuhner Report